The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index® inched down by 1.0 point to 94.6 in October, a modest retreat from the revised September reading of 95.6. 

The Present Situation Index, a measure of consumers’ assessments of current business and job market conditions, climbed 1.8 points to 129.3, suggesting Americans see slightly improved conditions right now. For the first time since December 2024, sentiment about job availability improved, coupled with more favorable views of business conditions.

However, the Expectations Index—a measure of consumers’ six-month outlook for business, labor, and income—declined by 2.9 points to 71.5, remaining below the crucial threshold of 80 for the ninth consecutive month. Sub-80 readings traditionally serve as a recession warning. Survey respondents reported greater pessimism about future business and job prospects, and a somewhat more cautious stance on income gains.

The latest data reveal a split in confidence along age, income, and political lines. Confidence fell among consumers under 35 and those over 55, but rose for the 35–54 age group. By income, it dropped for households earning less than $75,000 per year and improved for most groups earning above that threshold—especially those making over $200,000.

Partisan divides were also visible: confidence edged up for Independents, slipped for Republicans, and fell for Democrats.

Inflation and rising prices remained the top concerns cited in consumer write-in comments. References to tariffs—while down from last month—remained higher than historical averages. Political worries surged with multiple mentions of the ongoing government shutdown, highlighting the complex mix of economic and political anxieties at play.

Twelve-month inflation expectations ticked up to 5.9% from 5.8% in September. More than half of Americans (52.8%) expect interest rates to rise further, and only about a quarter (26.2%) think they will decline.

Stock market optimism remained resilient: nearly half (49.9%) expect stock prices to climb in the year ahead, with fewer than 3 in 10 predicting a decline.

Despite uncertainty, consumer reports on their current and expected family financial situations improved for the month, though still lagged behind 2025 averages. While the share of Americans expecting a recession in the next 12 months fell, a growing proportion believe that a recession may have already begun.

Purchasing intentions sent mixed signals. Car buying plans increased—particularly for used vehicles—but plans to buy homes declined, even as the six-month trend for home purchases turned upward. Big-ticket item purchases rebounded after earlier softness, and intentions to buy services (notably pet care, streaming, and automotive services) also rose. Vacation and travel interest are recovering, with holiday spending expectations looking dimmer: consumers foresee spending 3.9% less on gifts and 12% less on non-gift items this season, focusing on deals and pricing amid ongoing trade and tariff concerns.

Business and Labor by the Numbers

• 20.2% of Americans called current business conditions “good,” up from 19.9% last month, while those rating conditions “bad” dipped from 15.3% to 14.7%.
• 27.8% said jobs are “plentiful,” up from 26.9% in September.
• 18.4% still found jobs “hard to get,” up slightly from 18.2%.
• Looking ahead, just 19.0% expect business conditions to improve (down from 19.3%), while 22.6% anticipate them worsening.
• Only 15.8% expect job availability to grow (down from 16.6%), and 27.8% anticipate fewer jobs (up from 25.7%).