U.S. consumer confidence fell sharply in November, hitting its lowest level since April, as Americans grew more pessimistic about current business conditions, the labor market, and their financial future, according to the latest report from The Conference Board.

The Consumer Confidence Index declined by 6.8 points to 88.7 in November, down from a revised 95.5 in October.

Key Indicators Signal Growing Recession Risk

The report’s two main components both deteriorated significantly:

• The Expectations Index—which gauges consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—plunged by 8.6 points to 63.2. This index has now tracked below the critical 80-point threshold, which traditionally signals a recession ahead, for ten consecutive months.
• The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—also fell by 4.3 points to 126.9, indicating a less sanguine view of the current economic climate.

Consumer pessimism was primarily fueled by ongoing references to prices and inflation, tariffs and trade, and politics. The report noted a specific rise in mentions of the recent federal government shutdown as a factor affecting the economy.

Consumers who believe the economy is already in recession rose for the fourth consecutive month. While views on the current labor market differential dipped, expectations for future household incomes “shrunk dramatically” after months of positive readings.

Confidence on a six-month moving average basis fell for nearly all income cohorts, though consumers under 35 years old showed continued improvement.

The diminished outlook immediately impacted consumers’ plans for major purchases. Plans for buying big-ticket items over the next six months declined across the board in November.

• Car purchasing expectations ticked downward for both new and used vehicles.
• Plans for household appliances and most electronics also edged lower.
• Vacation intentions fell back after a surge in October, consistent with reduced intentions to spend on hotels, motels, and airfare.

Despite persistent economic uncertainty and cautious consumer sentiment leading into the holiday season, Black Friday 2025 shattered online sales records. U.S. consumers spent a record $11.8 billion online, according to Adobe Analytics, marking 9.1% year-over-year growth and surpassing $11 billion for the first time.

Over half of Black Friday’s online sales originated from mobile devices, cementing the smartphone as the primary shopping tool for research, deal comparison, and purchasing. Shoppers significantly ramped up their use of “Buy Now, Pay Later” (BNPL) services, which accounted for an estimated $747.5 million in digital sales. This surge indicates that consumers are leveraging flexible payment options to manage cash flow and afford big-ticket purchases like electronics, apparel, and furniture while still chasing discounts.

The attention now shifts to Cyber Monday, which is forecast to be the single largest online shopping day of the year.